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Boxing Prediction Thread [No Results or Spoilers]
Well, it's a new year with new fight prospects on the horizon in 2012. No spoilers to be discussed here, just want to see what everythinks of these match-ups for this year. :) Starting with mine..
Vitali Klitschko vs Dereck Chisora
While it would be awesome if the tiny titan that battered Helenius into failure could pull off an upset against Vitali, I see the Ukranian Giant destroying Chisora in 6 rounds if Chisora comes to fight. 12 round UD if Chisora comes to survive.
Wladimir Klitschko vs Jean Marc Mormeck
I've never seen Mormeck fight, but the general consensus among the boxing community is that the 5'11.5" Cruiserweight has absolutely no chance against Wlad, and this is the easiest fight Wlad will have had since holding a Heavyweight strap.
Wladimir Klitschko vs Tony Thompson II
Mandated by the IBF to happen by July, I'm really not looking forward to this fight. Thompson said he came in with the wrong game plan, wrong training, etc etc - has better nutrition now, the whole 9 years, but I can't see this as being any different from their first outing.
Marco Huck vs Alexander Povetkin
I've never seen Marco Huck fight, but Povetkin is closer to a Cruiserweight than a Heavyweight. I think this could be very competitive, but don't see the naturally bigger Russian losing.
Alexander Povetkin vs Hasim Rahman
WBA mandated to happen, and Rahman says that Povetkin either has to fight him before or after Huck. I've never seen Rahman fight. Thoughts?
Eddie Chambers vs Sergei Liakhovich
Liakhovich looked alive against Helenius, and Chambers looked unimpressive in his last few outings. I honestly favor Liakhovich to win this slightly.
Denis Lebedev vs Guillermo Jones
A surprising WBA-mandated title unification. I pick the younger, harder-hitting Lebedev to beat the natural Welterweight Jones, but I also predict a robbery in Panama if it goes all 12.
Lucian Bute vs Carl Froch
This will be a good scrap, but I favor Bute by KO. Froch will be the stiffest opposition he's faced yet.
Sergio Martinez vs Matthew Macklin
Martinez. Macklin will make it a good fight, but I just see Macklin and Martinez as leagues apart.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr vs Marco Antonio Rubio
I've never seen Rubio fight. That's all I have to say.
Daniel Geale vs Osumanu Adama
Saw Geale fight, he looked slick. Never seen Adama fight, but a fight against an IBF #1 contender seems promising enough.
Andre Berto vs Victor Ortiz II
I see either guy winning this. If Berto wins, we have a new 'best welterweight' under Pacman and Mayweather. If Ortiz wins, he can push for a second battle with Mayweather. No matter who wins, I win.
Mike Jones vs Randall Bailey
For Berto's vacant IBF welterweight strap. Word on the street is that Bailey has dynamite in both hands, and Mike Jones is a slick, tall, weak boxer. We'll see who wins this - 50/50.
Devon Alexander vs Marcos Maidana
Since it's in St. Louis, I see Alexander winning this by points, whether he really wins it or not.
Juan Manuel Lopez vs Orlando Salido II
Hard for me to say. 50/50.
I'm surprised in myself that most of my picks are terrible and uninformed. But hey! That's what I have you geniuses to talk to. :)
Since i´ve seen a few fights of his (since he is german and thats all i get to see on television short of the Klitschkos) Marco Huck fights like a boar. I think he is a former kickboxer (possible a world champ dunno exactly and too lazy to check wikipedia) who has a fair amount of power at least in the cruiserweight but no real boxing sense and is often reprimandant by his coaches to use his head (with i have yet to see him do). So if Povetkin can actually box and especially knows how to counter he should win against Huck who so far only lost 1 bout in his first championship fight against Cunningham who showed him his limits back then in a UD.
Your picks are pretty good. For Chavez Jr vs Rubio, Rubio is very basic as a boxer but he can punch, which represents a huge threat to Chavez Jr since Jr has little defense, so I would slant that fight in Jr's favor but it's a borderline toss-up imo. Also, Rahman can punch, but is so shot and out of shape it's hard to see it mattering against Povetkin unless he turns back the clock big time.
Part of me really wants Rubio to win, the guy has been a contender for ages, and he can punch. However, if it goes to decision, I just can't see them letting Jr. lose. Rubio needs to KO him if he wants to win, which will be tricky since Jr. has displayed a pretty solid chin.
He's shown a good chin, but against a lot of fighters that can't punch and smaller guys. It remains to be seen whether Jr can take full-on shots from an actual Middleweight puncher like Rubio. However, as punchers go, Rubio is about as basic as it gets. His technique is fine, but he doesn't have much punch variety, mostly throwing the jab and straight right. He's somewhat tough, but doesn't have great defense. Not especially fast either. Despite all this, I think so little of Chavez's defense that it's a near toss-up, but the judges, crowd, and ref will certainly be in favor of Jr, and he's younger, so it swings a little in his favor.
I found myself drawn to watching Ortiz vs Berto tonight. Probably because it was such a pleasure to watch the first time. I surprised myself, because I thought it was closer the first time. Having watched this, I need to retcon my opinion above. I think Ortiz will win it handily, and by knock out. I don't think Ortiz or Berto has faced any competition that will have worn them down OR leveled them up since their last fight, and I don't think that Berto's change in nutrition/training/whatever is going to make any difference. Cuz he looked gassed by the end of the Zaveck fight.
My scoring below..
It honestly hurt me to see Ortiz throw his chance with Mayweather away. I'm not going to say that he was winning the fight leading up to the KO or anything, but he looked good at points. He was big, strong and young enough to make Money uncomfortable and I think, if he really committed to murdering Mayweather's body, could have scraped out a decision. I mean, he came into fight night something like 15 pounds heavier than money, the boy was gigantic! However, instead he decide to go all Balrog on him and basically throw the fight. A pity. I'd really like to see him, like yourself, get back on top and avenge some of his draws/losses. Maybe he could refight Peterson for some of the belts ....?
Ortiz since that loss to Madidana has come across as a bitch to me
Ortiz has lots of physical gifts, but is a head case. He actually showed pretty good heart against Berto but against Maidana and Floyd it wasn't there. His chin is very questionable. And he was actually dumb enough to state that he was trying to break Floyd's nose with that headbutt, which is getting him investigated now by the Nevada commission.
Yeah I saw the interview where he claimed that was his goal ... immediate facepalm moment. Ortiz, in the words of someone on another forums, "is that special kind of psycho that smiles at you as he carves his name in his arm with a knife." Hopefully he'll get his head straight and the Berto rematch will be something worth watching.
I don't think Ortiz will ever get his head on straight. But, he'll be entertaining to watch as long as he comes to fight.